Bet Highlights:

1. Force’s attack looks strong.
2. Brumbies showed resilience with a late comeback in their last match.
3. Both defenses have been leaking points in first games

Full Analysis:

Last week, I backed the over 54 points in Force vs. Moana Pasifika, and the game turned into an absolute shootout, finishing 45-44 in favor of Force. That match confirmed two key takeaways: Force have an explosive attack, but their defense is a major liability. Conceding 44 points at home to Moana Pasifika is a huge concern, and there’s no reason to believe they’ll suddenly tighten up defensively—especially against a stronger opponent on the road.

The Brumbies, on the other hand, secured a comeback win over Fijian Drua, becoming the first Australian team to win in Fiji. That was an impressive performance, and now playing at home, their attack should shine even more.

So far, the Super Rugby season has been trending towards high-scoring games, and this one should be no exception. As mentioned, the Brumbies are heavy favorites, and if Moana managed to put 44 points past Force, the Brumbies should have no trouble surpassing 40. However, I don’t expect Force to roll over—they should make some tactical adjustments and still put up at least 20+ points themselves.

Since I expect a closer game than the handicap suggests, I’m sticking with the over. Given the way both teams play, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see over 60 points in this matchup.