Match Highlights:

1. Moana Pasifika continue to improve.
2. Strong home advantage for Moana.
3. Hurricanes don’t seem as strong as last season.

Full Analysis:

I’ve analyzed all three of Moana Pasifika’s games so far this season, and their performances have largely followed expectations. Last week, they came agonizingly close to victory against the Highlanders, dominating the second half 19-0 and knocking on the door for a match-winning try in the dying minutes. If they can carry that momentum into this game, they certainly have a real chance to compete here.

Once again, Ardie Savea was outstanding, proving why he remains one of the best rugby union players in the world. He will also have extra motivation in this matchup, as he faces his former club for the first time.

The Hurricanes have not had an ideal start to the season. They have just one win—a last-minute escape at home against Fijian Drua (a team on a similar level to Moana Pasifika). Last week, they had a promising lead against the Blues but collapsed late, suffering another disappointing loss. They haven’t looked as dominant as last year, and their defense is struggling, which could play into Moana’s strengths.

While the Hurricanes are rightfully favorites, I don’t see them as overwhelmingly superior. There is definite value in backing Moana, especially considering their home advantage and their hunger for a first win.

It’s also worth noting that last season’s meeting in Wellington ended with the Hurricanes winning by just six points, despite them being in far better form (they topped the regular season standings), while Moana had a weaker squad.

With that in mind, I’ll be backing Moana Pasifika on the handicap, as this game should be much closer than the odds suggest.