Sport
BASEBALL
Date added
Match date
League
MLB
Bet type
OTHER
Moderator Odds
1.88
Do not bet lower odds
1.8
Stake
3
Prediction
Over 8
Description
Match Highlights:
- Toronto’s bats are on fire
- Blue Jays’ pitching has been shaky
- Tampa playing average across the board
Full Analysis:
I mentioned Tampa’s overall mediocrity in the highlights — and honestly, that’s not a problem for our bet. In fact, it might help. The Rays are playing the whole season on the road due to hurricane damage to their stadium, which adds an extra layer of difficulty. They’re sitting in the lower half of the standings, but there are definitely worse teams out there.
Their form has been up and down, but lately, the bats have shown signs of life — averaging 4.3 runs over their last five games, which is above their season average. In the first game of this series, they won 11-9, and then lost 1-3 yesterday, so we might see them bounce back offensively again.
They’ll face Kevin Gausman, who isn’t a bad starter, but he’s nowhere near his best form. He’s taken the loss in four straight starts, allowing 3 runs to St. Louis last time out, and 4 or more in the two starts before that. Only in Cleveland did he keep a clean sheet — and even then, the bullpen lost it.
Speaking of which, Toronto’s bullpen has been a liability, with a 5.34 ERA, allowing over 4 runs per game after the starter exits. That’s not great — and Tampa knows how to hit Gausman, having recorded 8 hits and 3 runs over 6 innings the last time they faced him. That gives them a confidence boost here.
On the flip side, Toronto’s offense is red-hot, averaging over 6 runs per game in their last outings. They’ll go up against Zach Littell, who’s been solid recently with a 3.00 ERA, but we’ve seen him regress under pressure. Against a team like Toronto, in this kind of form, those numbers could easily go south. Tampa’s bullpen is better than Toronto’s, but still nothing special — around average at best.