The match of the 18th round of the Japanese J1 League between twelfth-ranked Fagiano Okayama and eighth-ranked Machida Zelvia promises to be an evenly matched clash between two teams that are currently in different form. Machida is playing in a form adequate to their position in the table, but Okayama is falling short of expectations - they have won only one of their last 5 matches, but have lost three times.

Fagiano Okayama may have won 2-1 against Albirex Niigata, but their defensive record is shaky - they have scored in five of their last six games and have received seven goals in total. Although they have managed to score at home, the historical record against Machida is not in their favour - they have not won in their last two league games. The start of defender Y. Suzuki is in question.

Machida Zelvia, led by Go Kurod, shows a more stable performance. In the last six games, they have scored nine times and conceded six times, indicating a good balance between attack and defence. They enter the match almost at full strength, with the only absence due to a ligament injury to Takumi Narasaka.

The mutual record speaks in Machida's favour - an average of 2.83 goals per game have been conceded from the last meetings. Based on current form, stats and gameplay, expect a close game in which the visitors could have a slight advantage. However, if Okayama scores a goal, then an OVER of 2.5 goals is very likely on the table. The odds of 2.83 are overvalued in my opinion and Value certainly has it.