Bet highlight:

1. Musetti has had a solid year on clay with a 19-4 record.
2. Alcaraz only lost once on clay this year, to Rune in Barcelona.
3. Their previous H2H this year favors Alcaraz (2-0), but both matches were competitive.

Full analysis:

Tomorrow at 02:30 p.m., we will see a clash between Lorenzo Musetti (7th) and Carlos Alcaraz (2nd) on the clay courts of Roland Garros.

First, let's take a look at Lorenzo Musetti. Clay is by far his preferred surface, where he has posted an impressive 19-4 record this year. It’s worth noting that every loss Musetti has had this season has been in the semifinals or later, excluding his withdrawal in Buenos Aires. His last defeat came in Rome against Alcaraz in the semifinals, and earlier this year, he also lost to Alcaraz in Monte Carlo's final, where I believe Musetti was in the form of his life. At the French Open, Musetti has cruised through the first two rounds with 3-0 victories over Hanfmann and Galan. However, in the third round, he has struggled to keep the match to straight sets, losing at least one set in each of his last two matches. Overall, I am impressed with Musetti's game—he is solid and effective. One key point is that Musetti rarely hits aces, but he has been more effective with his service winners compared to his opponents.

On the other side of the court, we have Carlos Alcaraz, who, although he needs no introduction, has had an exceptional year on clay. His only loss came to Rune in Barcelona’s final, but he has triumphed in Monte Carlo and Rome. At the French Open, Alcaraz has occasionally dropped a set, whether it was against Marozsan, Dzumhur, or Shelton. In all those matches, there was a point when Alcaraz was on the back foot. However, his most recent match against Tommy Paul was a statement performance—he completely dominated with a 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 win and did not give Paul a single break-point opportunity.

Why am I betting on over 3.5 sets? H2H this year favors Alcaraz (2-0), with the first match being a Monte Carlo final where Musetti completely faded after the first set. The second meeting was in Rome, where Alcaraz won in straight sets, but the second set was decided by a tiebreak. I believe Musetti has something to prove and will be looking to give Alcaraz a tough match, so I expect at least four sets.

Good luck