Bet highlight:

1. Virtus.Pro is showing solid form, going 3-0 in the last stage.
2. Even though MOUZ has improved dramatically over the past year, they’re still capable of losing to weaker teams on paper.
3. Since this is a BO1, the favorite should be priced with caution - which I don’t think is the case here.

Full analysis:

Next match to look at at the BLAST Austin Major is MOUZ vs Virtus.Pro. VP is coming in with great momentum, having gone 3-0 in Stage 2. That gives them a warm-up advantage, having already played several maps - while MOUZ will be hitting the server for the first time in this stage. The key detail for this bet is the BO1 format. BO1s are inherently volatile: pistol rounds carry more weight, momentum swings are faster, and overall, there’s much more variance. In this kind of setup, odds need to reflect that volatility. Odds above 2.5 on VP feel off to me - 3.0 is just too high, and I’m happy to take that.

Good luck and have fun!